By Gregor Stuart Hunter
SINGAPORE, July 14 (Reuters) – Stocks yoyoed between gains and losses and oil hit a one-month high in Asian trading on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. was reinstating its blockade of Iranian shipping and would collect a 20% fee on cargo traversing the Strait of Hormuz.
Following a volatile session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2%, as a rebound for South Korean shares offset declines in Taiwan. S&P 500 e-mini futures nudged 0.1% higher.
Chinese stocks led the rally, with the CSI 300 up 2% after export and import data for June released on Tuesday surpassed economists’ expectations.
“China’s exports and imports surged to the highest levels since the pandemic-skewed 2021, as the tech boom supports growth on both fronts,” ING analysts wrote in a research note. “Exports have been one of China’s primary growth engines in recent years, and this year’s acceleration continues to beat expectations.”
Brent crude futures climbed 2.6% to $85.49 a barrel, after earlier hitting their highest since mid-June at $85.64.
Markets were also rattled by hawkish comments on Monday from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates “in the near term” if data shows inflation continuing well above the 2% target.
U.S. CPI data is due for release later on Tuesday, followed by comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will deliver the central bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.
“While the risk had been building in the system over the past week, markets reacted aggressively” to the latest headlines from the Iran conflict, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone in Melbourne.
“The prospect of tighter monetary policy into a potential energy shock is rarely supportive for risk assets.”
Overnight, stocks on Wall Street sold off and oil futures surged more than 9% as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran re-ignited, once again throttling the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%.
Fed funds futures are pricing in an implied 43.3% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the U.S. central bank’s next two-day meeting on July 28 to 29, compared to a 34.2% chance on Friday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.8 basis point at 4.6156%.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, nudged 0.1% lower to 101.18, trading around its highest levels of the month. Gold was up 0.8% at $4,031.60.
“The risk to Asian markets from the re-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions runs mainly through the impact of higher energy prices on currencies and policy interest rates,” said Eastspring Investments’ chief investment officer Vis Nayar in a note. “Persistently higher oil prices would increase the risk that the U.S. Federal Reserve would hike the Fed funds rate later this year.”
In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan may consider adjusting the strategy of the giant Government Pension Investment Fund if the investment environment changed sharply. However, she gave few further details.
In Taipei, the Taiwanese benchmark fell to a one-month low, leading regional declines even as other markets recovered. Market bellwether TSMC is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, with a fifth consecutive quarter of record profits expected.
In Seoul, stocks moved between negative and positive territory as shares in SK Hynix veered between gains and losses, rising as much as 4.9% after an earlier selloff. The volatility for the memory chipmaker comes after a dramatic plunge a day earlier following its Nasdaq debut last week.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 0.8% higher at $62,633.95 while ether was up 1.1% at $1,784.53.
(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Kevin Buckland and Stephen Coates)
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