By Sarah Marsh
BERLIN (Reuters) – Three states in eastern Germany hold elections in September that could shake up the country’s political landscape ahead of next year’s federal elections, with two populist parties performing strongly in opinion polls.
Here are some facts about the elections:
THE ELECTIONS
Thuringia and Saxony vote on Sept. 1 and Brandenburg follows on Sept. 22. Together the three states have around 8.5 million inhabitants – similar to the population of Switzerland – and account for 10% of Germany’s population.
They are located in the formerly communist-run East, where voting patterns are still very different more than 30 years after reunification.
Germany’s state governments and parliaments have jurisdiction over matters like the police, courts, education and culture.
State elections also determine the composition of the Bundesrat federal upper house of parliament which has a say over some national legislation, and provide a snapshot of citizens’ mood.
OPINION POLLS
Three parties currently dominate the east German political landscape. They are the conservatives, and two anti-establishment parties: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which is conservative on social policy and leftist on economics.
Polls suggest the three state elections could lend further legitimacy to the AfD and the BSW, a populist party created in January and named after its founder, which could have an impact on national politics.
Both the AfD and the BSW are eurosceptic, anti-immigration, Russia-friendly and against military support for Ukraine.
Current polls suggest the AfD could come first in all three states with 24-30% of support, which would mark the first time a far-right party has been largest in a German parliament since World War Two.
The conservatives, also in opposition at national level, are vying with the AfD for first place in Saxony, while firmly in second place in Thuringia and running neck-and-neck for second place with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) in Brandenburg.
All three parties in Scholz’s coalition are set to perform miserably, with both Greens and the pro-Business Free Democrats (FDP) appearing set to fall out of the Thuringia state parliament for failing to reach the 5% threshold.
The SPD is on track to win just 6-7% of the vote in Saxony and Thuringia, a poor performance for what has long been one of Germany’s two big-tent parties.
Meanwhile, the BSW is expected to win 13-18% of the vote in the three states. It is set to near obliterate the far-left Left party, from which it splintered, in Brandenburg and Saxony, while swiping more than half its support in Thuringia.
At national level, the AfD and BSW are polling respectively at 16-19% and 7-9% support but in these three eastern states, they look set to take nearly half the vote collectively.
THE RESULTS AND COALITION BUILDING
Germany is a parliamentary democracy where the party able to form a majority – whether alone or in a coalition – gets to govern.
Given the AfD is unlikely to reach a majority of votes alone, it would need to get the support of another party to form a coalition or a minority government in the three states. But so far, all other parties have refused to work with the party.
The AfD would likely portray manoeuvres to keep it out of power as undemocratic, political analysts say.
Meanwhile a conservative party ban on forming a coalition with the far-left Left party further complicates coalition mathematics in particular in Thuringia, where the latter has some 13% of the vote.
As such the conservatives could seek to form a coalition or minority government in Thuringia with support from the BSW.
In Saxony and Brandenburg, the current coalitions of conservatives, SPD and Greens could scrape enough support to continue in power – but if not, the established parties may also need to also rely on the BSW.
GOVERNANCE
If the AfD achieves one third of the parliamentary seats – which it looks on track to do in Saxony and Thuringia – it would have a blocking minority for certain decisions, such as changes to the state constitution and judge appointments.
Moreover, as first-placed party, it would traditionally nominate the president of the state parliament, although this requires a vote and it would likely not receive enough support.
Indirectly, the strength of the AfD and BSW could complicate governance, resulting in awkward coalitions or minority governments that have to always fight for enough votes to push through legislation.
(Reporting by Sarah Marsh; Editing by Frances Kerry)
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